15 May 2006

B.O. Derby

I may have grossly overestimated the popularity of both Mission Impossible: III and Poseidon, as neither look to be on a roll to approach my estimates. Poseidon has all but flopped, but who knows what will happen with Memorial Day approaching. In any case, here is how the summer box office stands:

2)Poseidon - $22,155,410
1)Mission Impossible: 3 - $85,100,142

My Top 9 Predictions

9) Lady in the Water - $160,000,000
8) Poseidon - $175,00,0000
7) Mission Impossible: III - $205,000,000
6) Over the Hedge - $220,000,000
5) X-Men: The Last Stand - $225,000,000
4) Cars - $260,000,000
3) The Da Vinci Code - $275,000,000
2) Superman Returns - $325,000,000
1) Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest - $350,000,000


Furious Peter Hon said...

I think you're predictions are about fairly accurate. Not in Dollar amounts, but in the overall rankings.

On the other hand, I don't think we'll have more than 5 movies breaking the $200,000,000 mark. I have a feeling that X3 will probably make $175,000,000 *sounds like the movie is pandering too hard to the comic book fans and not to the general audience*, while the 2 CG entries and Pirates are almost a shoe in to reach $200 mill at least (blame the family friendliness).

Da Vinci may go up to , at worst, $70 mill. At best, $225 mill *I'm being pretty generous here*

I want to think that Superman will be making $325 mill, since it feels like a better movie then X3. I know, I shouldn't go by my gut all the time, but when it comes to geeky superhero flicks, I know my Cheddar from my Kraft Singles.

Haven't heard anything about Lady in the Water. I'm guessing another horror flick ala The Ring and the Grudge. So its just at the bottom by default. It would be higher if I even knew alittle of what its about, but if my guess is right, its about time for a shift in taste in the Horror department.

So sum it all up:

9) Lady in the Water
8) Poseidon
7) Mission Impossible
6) Da Vinci
5) x-men 3
4) Over the Hedge
3) Cars
2) Superman Returns
1) Pirates of the Caribbean 2

Hmm, this is a really long reply. :P

Chip Chief said...

yeah, i may have been a little overly optimistic with my predictions, but i had my explainations
a couple weeks back.

you really think da vinci will not be that big? it seems like everyone i know is planning on seeing it. but i dont know too many people. =)

by the way lady in water is the new m night shyamalan movie, but i dont know much about it yet.

j said...

There's a new trailer out for Lady in the Water. Looks much scarier than the original teaser implied. Still not sure what to thing about it, but I like M Night's stuff. He doesn't just make movies to make a buck.

Furious Peter Hon said...

I just checked out that trailer for Lady in the Water. Looks good, so I think it'll be 8 overall on the list. It seems more like a film they should have released last month, only because its not your usually summer blockbuster.

I probably should have said that Da Vinci and X3 would be tied for 5/6. It may be my habit of just skipping over thrillers during the summer. So $150-175 mill sounds about right. :P

I think this summer is going to be a tough one on the Cineplexes. Most folks are cutting back on expenses and whatnot due to higher gas prices, so if they're going out to see a movie, it better be good (this applies mainly to the adults with families).

Of course Da Vinci has the Whole "Its a controversy/not really" buzz going on, so it may get more seats in initially. But never underestimate the power of family-fare movies. They may not be the most popular, but for each family that goes to watch a film, there are AT LEAST 3-4 seats/tickets paid for. And kids are more likely to repeat view things than adults, so diminishing revenues are not nearly as big.

Man, another long reply. Oh well, its just nice to let it all out sometimes.

Chip Chief said...

i guess you are right on about the "family picture." how else could one explain ice age 2 beating out mission impossible. addd to that the fact that both over the hedge and cars look like they might be good.

on the topic of lady in the water, check out
this poster.