08 April 2007

3quel Throwdown - Spider-Man vs Shrek vs Pirates

Above (Click to Expand) is a chart of the massive earnings of the three franchises facing off next month. A fierce month of competition is surely coming. I do not recall a single month that held the releases of 3 highly anticipated "3quels" and this showdown should be fun to watch. Who will win? The moody Spider, the grumpy Ogre, or the deck swabbing Pirates?

May 4 features Spider-Man 3. Venom should be a popular draw, and the fact that Spidey has 2 weeks of little competition can't hurt either. Also, Spider-Man 1 and 2 have the highest combined domestic earnings of the bunch.

May 18 will feature Shrek the Third. Shrek 2 was the biggest hit of all 6 movies in the three franchises thus far. But with a glut of computer animation, can the trend continue?

May 25
features the end of the hot Pirates trilogy with Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. Picking up where part 2's cliffhanger ending left off this film is highly anticipated. The Memorial Day weekend boost should be nice as well.

My prediction is that Pirates 3 will win the domestic (about $375) and international battles. Spider-Man 3 will have the biggest 3 day weekend total ($120), but of course with Memorial day, Pirates will also win the biggest 4 day total ($130). Shrek will do ok, but will come in 3rd in all categories. Anyone else have theories? Lets hear them.

Spider-Man 2 - Unrated, Extended Cut (Two-Disc Deluxe Edition)

Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Man's Chest (Two-Disc Collector's Edition)

Pirates of the Caribbean - The Curse of the Black Pearl (Two-Disc Collector's Edition)

Shrek (Two-Disc Special Edition)

Shrek 2 (Widescreen Edition)


Dragulf said...

Spiderman 3 will beat the others domesticly. Pirates coming only a year since the 2nd one might hurt it.

finky the kid said...

It's going to be really close between Pirates and Spidey, domestically. Spidey will likely drop off sooner, but Pirates may yet have a bigger opening three-day weekend total, if only b/c it probably edges out Spidey for "mass appeal" being that it hitsthe Disney market as hard as it does the more "adult" fiction/fantasy demographic. Being a comdey, Dreck will certainly come in third to these 2 big, action blockbusters. My prediction for domestic AND international box office gross (which is no indicator of film quality): Pirates. Spidey's total BO and opening weekends have gone down with each installment, where as Pirate's was up. SPidey 2 had an $88MM opening weekend. I predict this one will be about the same (no real drop due to increased ticket prices since 2004). Pirates made $135MM last year on opening weekend. This year I predict less bu8ild up will result in an opening weekend of $110MM.