30 April 2007

Summer 07 Box Office Predictions - Part 3

In Part 1 and Part 2 I predicted

#9 Evan Almighty - $170,000,000
#8 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer - $175,000,000
#7 The Bourne Ultimatum - $185,000,000
#6 Transformers - $205,000,000
#5 Ratatouille - $260,000,000
#4 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - $275,000,000

Now, its time for the top 3 and the big May smackdown.

#3 Shrek the Third - 18 MAY 07

A lot has changed since Shrek 2 mustered $441 million 3 years ago. Back then, computer animated films were still special. Not so anymore in today's overcrowded market. Also, I think people are getting a little Shreked out. But kids will still want to see this movie and its still going to be big, just not quite as big as last time around. Dreamworks Animation's flagship should still bring in an ogre sized $325,000,000.

#2 Spider-Man 3 - 04 MAY 07

Even without Venom, I would be jazzed just to see the black costume on screen. With Venom AND Sandman, I can hardly contain my excitement. Also, opening the Summer uncontested for 2 weeks gives Spidey a running start. Part 1 made $403 million and part 2 $374 million. I think part 3 is due for a slight improvement over 2 on its way to $380,000,000.

#1 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End - 25 MAY 07

As long as this film gets finished before it is released, it stands a good chance of ruling the summer. Part 1 (Curse of the Black Pearl) made a surprising $305 million. Part 2 (Dead Man's Chest) again surprised everyone by making $423 million. There is just no way that only a year later Pirates 3 (At World's End) can repeat that performance in a crowded summer. Memorial Day should help though, as should the cliffhanger ending of part 2. I just think that the 3 hour running time may encourage some to wait for the DVD, and will also put a cap on earning potential. Anyhow, looks like Disney should be number 1 two years in a row with a bounty of $395,000,000.

Shrek (Two-Disc Special Edition)

Shrek 2 (Widescreen Edition)

Spider-Man 2 - Unrated, Extended Cut (Two-Disc Deluxe Edition)

Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Man's Chest (Two-Disc Collector's Edition)

Pirates of the Caribbean - The Curse of the Black Pearl (Two-Disc Collector's Edition)


finky the kid said...

I don't know Chief. I think it'll be a closer clal between POTC and Spidey. (FOUR DAYS!)

finky the kid said...

Oops. "clal" = "call"