23 April 2008

Summer 08 Box Office Predictions - Misc

The summer holds a couple of other noteworthy sci-fi films too:

Hellboy II: The Golden Army - $85 Million - July 11

The first Hellboy was better than most people probably expected and the second looks bigger and better. I am not sure if big red is ready for the mainstream yet, but the sequel should do better than the original. Hopefully the take is big enough to allow for a part 3.

X-Files: I Want to Believe - $40 Million - July 25

10 years after the first movie and several years after the series went out with a whimper, I just don't know how many people are going to get too excited about this movie. People will probably assume its one of those parody remakes ala Brady Bunch rather than an honest to goodness sequel. It may be good, but it just seems that this ship has long since sailed.

And of course, there will be bombs:
The Love Guru - $25 Million - June 20

Oh Mike, when did you stop being funny? This looks awful. This does not look to be the summer of the comedy.

Meet Dave - $12 Million - July 12

Why not just make Pluto Nash 2? This movie about a little Eddie Murphy flying a big Eddie Murphy shaped spaceship looks and sounds horrible. At least its not Cuba Gooding Jr.

22 April 2008

Batmanime Begins


Chips and Dips

At the behest of The Krausologer I am going to show my top nine predictions along side those of the gurus at Entertainment Weekly. Not that they are anything special, but just to see how my predictions fare against those of the professionals. We did pick the same top 9 films, and if I had picked a 10th I may have picked any of 5 movies, so I am just gonna compare the top 9 (hey my game, my rules).

At the end of the summer we will calculate the winner with one point being awarded to the closer predictor of each film earnings and a bonus point being awarded for each correct ranking. I feel pretty confident. I mean, no way Iron Man tops Batman, also what up with the tenth of a million precision?

Feel free to take a side!

ServeWithChips Predicts:
1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $305 Million
2. The Dark Knight - $260 Million
3. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $255 Million
4. Hancock - $240 Million
5. Wall*E - $230 Million
6. Iron Man - $210 Million
7. Kung Fu Panda - $170 Million
8. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - $137 Million
9. The Incredible Hulk - $133 Million

EW Predicts:
1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $355.9 Million
2. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $310.8 Million
3. Hancock - $280.4 Million
4. Wall*E - $280.3 Million
5. Iron Man - $262.7 Million
6. The Dark Knight - $255 Million
7. Kung Fu Panda - $224.6Million
8. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - $176.5 Million
9. The Incredible Hulk - $147.2 Million

Summer 08 Box Office Predictions - Part 3

Continuing from Part 1, and Part 2, here are the big 3. And true to form, none are originals proving the reason why we can always count on sequels galore:

3. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $255 Million - May 16

No one is as fond of Prince Caspian as they are of The Lion, Witch, Etc. The first did very well, but opening in the Summer may have been a mis step for Narnia 2. Its got tough competition all around and has to share Memorial Day with Indy 4. It will still do well, the trailers are pretty good, but I just can't see it out performing part 1.

2. The Dark Knight - $260 Million - July 18

Batman Begins justified the "another batman movie" that no one thought we needed. It was overwhelmingly well received and the promise of the Joker (especially with the unfortunate tragedy surrounding Heath Ledger) should draw in huge crowds. Maybe a bit dark for some of Spidey's younger fans, but still should be big. This is my most anticipated of the Summer, and I suspect that I am not alone in that sentiment.

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $305 Million - May 22

The movie to be beat is Indy 4. I still remember my anticipation of Indy 3. Honestly I was probably more excited back then than I am now, but thats only to say I was a huge Indy fan even as a kid. The factor I do not know is how today's kids feel about Indiana Jones. If they like him, this will be huge. If they think that he is "dad's version of the Mummy," this one may not be so big. No matter what, this will be big and hopefully Indy won't be this decades Jar-Jar. But how big is the question. 305 is my conservative guess, though that makes '08's biggest pale in comparison to the big boys of '07.

21 April 2008

Summer 08 Box Office Predictions - Part 2

Continuing from Part 1,

In round 2, I present some movies that oughta be big. Especially refreshing is the lack of sequels in the bunch. That factor may limit their overall takes, but should add to their enjoyability. Here we go:

6. Iron Man - $210 Million - May 2

The ferite man will officially kick off the summer. Every thing about promoting this movie has been flawless. Perhaps they have given too much away, but what I have seen looks amazing. People who never heard of or cared about Iron Man want to see his flying with jets and blowing crap up. And Robert Downey Jr adds credibility to the film. Opening first is a huge advantage as well with only the cheesy Speed Racer challenging in week 2. I am hungry for a good superhero film and this one looks to deliver. I haven't seen this one yet, but I am already looking forward to Iron Man 2. Look for Batman Beginsish numbers and big success in Marvels first self-produced film.

5. Wall*E - $230 Million - June 27

The last couple of years, I have over predicted on Pixar's movies, but I am still a believer. If they can take a potentially disastrous premise of a rat chef and make one of the greatest films of the year, what can't they do? My hesitation is that sci-fi and animation have never been a big sell, but then again pirate movies also used to be sure to bomb. The trailer hasn't sold me either, but Pixars trailers have never done the movies justice. Expect performance similar to Cars with a moderate opening and huge repeat business.

4. Hancock - $240 Million - July 2

This is the 1/2 superhero film I eluded to before. Will Smith is a down and out Superhero with a generic name. While it could be this year's My Super-Ex Girlfriend, and though it does not really excite me, NEVER underestimate Will Smith who may very well be the biggest star in America today. He turned I Am Legend into a huge hit, and could do the same here. I feel that I may be over predicting here, as the Superhero genre is saturated with well known brands, but like I said before, the Fresh Prince must not be underestimated. Owning July 4th should help too.

20 April 2008

Summer 08 Box Office Predictions

Summer is nearly upon us and with lofty box office aspirations for often overhyped movies. This year is a rare treat for me with 4 1/2 superhero films, Indiana Cajones, and some fun looking animated movies. Its hard to not get too excited - I always do, but I guess thats just part of the fun.

Last year, I was pretty close with my Shrek, Bourne, and Potter predicts, and way off with Pirates and Evan Almighty. Hopefully this year I can be a little more accurate, though I honestly feel, with a lot fewer 3quesl, that I am just plain guessing on some of them. Overall, this summer probably wont be as big as last, but I am sure plenty of money will still be made.

Here we go:

9. The Incredible Hulk - $133 Million - June 13

Marvel really wants a Hulk franchise. After 2003's disappointing performance they made this reboot with a new cast, lighter tone, and new but equally obviously-computer rendered effects. I actually liked the 2003 take and wouldn't have minded a straight up sequel with a better villian. I am interested to see Edward Norton, but not too excited to see Arwen in action. I just don't imagine the general public, who didn't really enjoy Hulk 1, giving big green another chance so soon. Also, in a summer full of superheroes, Hulk will need to stand out, and so far it hasn't. Still, I predict a slight edge-out of the original with a $133 million take.

8. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - $137 Million - August 1

2008's 3quel that no one asked for. Mummy 1 was enjoyable enough. Mummy 2 had some OK scenes, but really got silly and added the dreaded annoying kid factor (see also Superman Returns). Having said that, the film broke $200 million and was fairly well received. On the other hand, its been 7 years. Brendan Frasier is kinda dried up, and Rachel Weisz was recast. At least the kid should be gone. The main attraction here is Jet Li. He and the branding should prevent a total bomb, but I do not expect big things here. Maybe the action-light August will give this one modest legs.

7. Kung Fu Panda - $170 Million - June 6

Not all of Dreamwork's films are terrible, though they have been trending in that direction with Bee Movie and Shrek 3 last year. Even Over the Hedge did just modestly, and I quite enjoyed it. Panda should fare well if it is OK and Dreamworks has hopes that it will be their next franchise, so maybe it is a good film. As the first big animated film of the Summer, it should be able to attract a crowd. Besides kids love Pandas. Though missing the big Memorial Day opening is gonna hurt. Also, family friendly Narnia and Indy films may sap its strength a bit. Look for a profitable but reasonable overall take.